I know there have been some others posts on this matter and I beleive the current thought is that no one really knows just exactly how its figured. The more I get to thinking about it though it boils down to a piece of software computing some sort of numerical data and placing you based on the results. When you achieve another numerical threshold you get moved from one league to another. The question is what function is Blizzard's software using to define where you get placed. Would you agree that there are two different functions at place here though? I think there is one simple function that decides your initial placement after the first 5 games and then there is another one at work that decides when you move from gold to platinum and similar. It can't be just a simple as win\loss ratio after the initial placement because I believe from a numerical basis there would be too many similarities amongst players to separate them like that. I also took note to the fact that some have said you need to loose a game or so after wining so many that creates a trigger for movement. So maybe the winning acceleration increase you have is a trigger? Let’s say that you are playing and you are wining 1out of 3 and that has been your pattern for a while. Then you caught a skill increase and overnight you went to a 3 out of 5 ratio. Maybe this could be a trigger in combination of your win loss ratio. This would be a temporary function that would compute after each game and then re-evaluate. The higher the league you're in the tighter the ratio you would have to maintain or you get sent to the minors so to speak. It also makes me wonder about streaks. Anyone get moved because they won a bunch of games in a row and then lost one? Not just because it happened once but maybe on a few occasions of having short win streaks but over all you still have an average win\loss ratio for whatever league you are in. When I started to think about this like a computer would I started to have more ideas about how they could be computing this. Just some thoughts.
I think it's mainly based on points. After big win or lose streaks it consistantly puts me against higher/lower ranked/leagued players pretty much forcing me to always fall back between 40-60% W/L ratio. I've had a 3-4 win streak which got me against 2 diamond players in a row but then i lost the next 7 and i got a few gold players so i guess if you fall outside of some set parameter in an algorithm it puts you against people in the league its thinking of moving you to then if you lose them your demoted. I doubt its based directly off win/lose ratios but the way it places you means a greatly below 50% win ratio means your losing against the easiest people it can put you against without demoting After your first move (second including placements) it seems to take alot to move you. Then again about 90% of people a verse are either even or favoured regardless of what league they're in so that could've been what stopped me moving after losing 7. I'm amazed someone hasn't worked out at least the basics of it considering what some game communities are capable of working out.
I very much doubt it's based of points or ranks. I just got promoted after being 15 in my league with no. 1 having 100 more points. I've seen some similar threads on the official SCII forums and they have some links to articles on the ranking system. Although it's just a guess assuming the ranking system is similar to WoW's. Here's how it boils down (as I understand) You have a score called your MMR (can't remember what it stands for, Match Making Ranking?) that is roughly how good you are. If you have an MMR of 150 and your opponent has one of 200, the system thinks that your opponent is better. How does your MMR change? If you win a game, it goes up. If you lose, it goes down. The higher ranked the player, the more points you get if you win. The lower ranked the player, the more you lose when you lose. Now, there's another number, called your confidence. You confidence is how confident the system is of your ranking. If you win a game against a better player, your rank will go up, and the system will go whoops, I didn't have you ranked very well, and lowers your confidence score. The computer will match people up with similar MMRs. Now how does one go up in league placement? Once your MMR gets to a certain point, you will be promoted. But if your confidence score is low, it may hold off until you score goes up. That's why you might have a better chance of getting promoted if you lose. If your supposed to lose your Confidence score will go up, and your MMR will drop slightly, but the system will be more confident you should be moved. Of course this is conjecture. It's a guess based off other ranking systems, and I might have mis-interpreted it, and I definitely left some stuff out. One last thing. Notice how your actual score as put on the ladder doesn't matter? That's there purely for figuring out ladder placement, which is useless if you haven't noticed. The #1 people are just the people who've played the most. Also explains why the no. 1 people aren't always bumped up, or the rank 15 people are bumped. That number is absolute bullcrap.
Well what i meant was obviously not purely based off points but points to a naked eye (We don't know how its calculated) gives us a direct comparison to how the system classes us and our win. So if you get alot of base points rapidly (You beat alot of people better than you without losing to worse people) you move up faster than the guy who plays 200 games and has more than you. Though yeah that arena system you mention is probably what its based off.
I think the points will be useful at some point ( like for league tournaments or something). By league tournaments i mean they take like the top 10 from each division within a league and pit them against each other. But i do have a feeling that the point system will, in time, be useful.
